IBOVESPA & PETROBRAS

Hello guys,

it has been a long time since the last post.. but im back to the business ... and today I have came to bring you up a analysis about Brazilian Stock Market (IBOVESPA) and the main stock Petrobras... so let's take a look at firstly IBOVESPA index:

As far as you can see we are in a good down trend without any doubt... the market made a top after the elections decision and since then has dropped huge erasing all the gains made through year of 2014. Now we are heading to a major support around 49 000 and once it break down  I can't see any more upside and the towards to 45000.
I can't see any more upside for the stocks due to 2 factors. First the brazilian economy is struggling to make a minor GDP of 0,1% HEY GUYS 0,1% for Brazil is ridiculous low because we have continental size and the projections of government to GDP in 2015 is 0,8% .. so I guess it will be much more lower HONESTLY I CAN SEE IT AT 0%.
Second fact... the inflation in brazil has been consistent even thought the CBB has worked to contain it as much as it could so they wont have choice the interest rate will have to be increase in the next year impacting stock market hardly and reducing the miserable GDP projection.

NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT PETROBRAS

Petrobras is a case of hard discussion WHy? This stock has been one of the most volatile iny 2014 worldwide and all of it because of election... however the fundamentals are HORRIBLE the significant DEBT to be paid the biggest in the world... So I can't see any upside from here...another relevant fact is that the support of 2008 has been tested and from now when it passed it down .. I expect a hard sell off orders be triggered and next target is 8 reals per stock and look IM OPTIMIST if things get really tough it could be heading to 4 even 2 reals per stock.... DISGUSTING but with lot of corruption inside the company plus COMMODITIES GOING LOWER globally I can't see any reason to buy it... honestly IT COULD EVEN CRASH AND DECLARE BANKRUPTCY. WHO KNOWS? :/

Cheers mate... hope it helps and Brazil too!